Friday, June 11, 2010

Whose roads are less safe?

One of the beautiful things about statistics is the way they can put the lie to stereotypes and popular misconceptions. If I were to ask you, which country has safer roads, South Africa a developing country with a shortage of civil engineers and weakly enforced traffic laws, or Canada?

Before you answer, consider this statement from the BBC's coverage of Zenani Mandela's death in a traffic accident on the eve of the 2010 FIFA World Cup.

"South Africa has one of the world's worst road safety records, and there are an average of 42 deaths each day on roads across the country."
-BBC, 2010

See how subtly the statement reinforces perceptions of South Africa's inferior road safety next to the rest of the world, using vagaries like "one of the worst" to link Zenani's death to a general malaise of underdevelopment. I wonder whether, after Princess Diana was killed in a car crash in Paris, any journalists were tempted to make the claim "France has one of the world's worst road safety records".

Now, consider the numbers. 42 people per day is equivalent to 15 thousand annually. This represents 1/3 of traffic fatalities in the US, whose population is 6X larger than that of South Africa. This means that there are in fact TWICE as many deaths in the US (and Canada) relative to the population as there are in South Africa. Again...WHOSE country has one of the worst safety records?

I would expect that with the high proportion of pedestrian and bicycle traffic on South Africa's roads, they may in fact be safer for the average traveler than roads in developed countries.

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